There has been a high level of interest from our clients and partners on the recovery in China. Therefore, we have decided to roll-out our live and continuous coverage through a dynamic and in-depth Economic Recovery Tracker. This will improve the accuracy of the information that is shared, and provide a lot more flexibility in terms of analyzing the information.
The Chinese economy has been showing signs of recovery for the last 4-5 weeks. As we track macro-economic and sectorial indicators, we have also taken into account multiple alternative indicators to provide a more tangible picture of economic activity in China. We expect sectors and firms focused on the domestic economy to show a strong recovery over the next few months, while export-focused sectors and firms will lag behind as the rest of the world tries to shake-off Covid-19 induced lockdowns.
Some of the salient points that we have observed are:
- E-commerce sector, after seeing a significant spike in the first few weeks after Covid-19 related measures were announced, has started moving back to its regular growth trajectory.
- Mobile applications sector has had a stellar growth on a year-on-year basis and that trajectory is continuing.
- Traditional drivers of the economy (Real Estate, Energy, Manufacturing, Logistics) are still performing below last year, but the general trajectory over the last few weeks has been upwards.
- There were sudden spikes in data in some sectors (especially Logistics) last year due to the rush to meet the US sanctions' timeline. This also has an impact on year-on-year comparisons.
- As expected there has been a lot of revision in GDP forecasts for China over the last few months – we have tried to capture the current forecasts as well as the change.
We hope you find it useful and relevant. Please do share your opinions and feedback with us at EconomicRecovery@evalueserve.com.