General
Impact of Covid-19: Chemicals Industry
The dampening impact of COVID-19 is expected to continue in Q2 2020. The most optimistic GDP turnaround estimate, to pre-Covid-19 levels, is 4–6 quarters.
The dampening impact of COVID-19 is expected to continue in Q2 2020. The most optimistic GDP turnaround estimate, to pre-Covid-19 levels, is 4–6 quarters.
Ripple effects of demand shock from COVID-19, felt across the value chain. Given the current state of outbreak it’s unlikely that the demand loss from COVID-19 would diminish before Q3 2020 and despite the optimistic recovery, 2020 oil demand will still face substantial decline.
Economic recession inevitable in 2020, but quick rebound expected in 2021. Global copper demand to decline 1.7%, USD/CLP increased 19.2% since social unrest.
Mining Industry: Impact of COVID-19 changed from moderate to high within March 2020. Companies are resorting to production slowdown, complete shutdown, demobilization of
workforce, and shuttering / isolation of operations.
Amid a global crisis of unprecedented scale, professional advice, expertise, and active support are more critical than ever for business leaders across the globe. The COVID-19 pandemic not only ends an uninterrupted bull run since the global financial crisis of 2007–08, but also stress-tests business models, global supply chains, and the war chests of companies globally.
Impacts on technology and telecommunications sectors vary somewhat by region. In North American there have been some setbacks. However the tech and telecom industries, and some of the larger individual players, in North America are highly diversified. As such, while some sentiments have been negative, others have been cautious but not alarmist (as not all subsectors are equally impacted).
Global economy is grappled with a severe demand shock, as more than 100 countries closed their borders in the past month. According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Global economy could shrink by up to 1% in 2020 due to Covid-19.
In 2019, consumer spending accounted for almost 70% of US GDP and made up about 58% of China’s GDP growth. With both countries being at the epicenter of this staggered crisis, consumer spending is likely to stay low through 2020. Consumer behavior will undergo a dramatic shift and firms will need to adapt to the changing environment while ensuring stricter compliance of better health and safety conditions.
China is almost 4-10 weeks ahead of rest of the world when it comes to Covid-19 outbreak and its implications for the country’s economy. Not surprisingly, Covid-19 had a strong negative impact on China’s GDP during Q1 2020 with projected Q1 Real GDP growth expected to decline from pre-Covid-19 projection of 5.9% YoY growth to post Covid-19 projection of 0.2% YoY growth for Q1 2020. Projections are as of Mar 31, 2020.
Global auto sales were already struggling to keep pace even before the outbreak of Covid-19. China led the descent with its dramatic sales drop of more than 20% year on year during this month. Initially, the Asian auto industry was hit the hardest due to the coronavirus impact, where the Chinese industry witnessed a 79% decrease in the sales.
Globally, the pharmaceutical industry may experience logistics and demand disruptions, but less compared to other sectors. North America and EMEA plan to invest in API facilities to reduce reliance on APAC.
Global oil market was expected to balance in the second half of 2020, driven by production cuts from OPEC+, favorable demand growth, and stagnant non-OPEC supply growth. However, the Covid-19 outbreak lowered oil and oil products’ consumption of the largest consumer (China), and the Saudi Arabia-Russia disagreement will result in an extremely oversupplied market (at least in the short term).
Monetary policies and quantitative easing (QE) across the globe are aimed at promoting liquidity and stimulating credit, but the demand shock will require expansive and ongoing fiscal stimulus. Banks with credit exposure to vulnerable sectors like Energy, Hospitality and Leisure, Retail, Airlines, and Industrial products are likely to see loan-loss reserves increase as default rates tick up.
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Evalueserve estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic could wipe off 13–30 MMT of LNG demand in 2020. The pandemic has added further
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