Note: While some reports suggest that SpaceX’s post-IPO valuation could reach as high as $2.1 trillion [1] , we have adopted a $1.75 trillion valuation, as it currently appears to be the most credible. Accordingly, the entire analysis has been conducted based on this valuation.
On April 1, 2026 [2], SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC, setting the stage for a potential record breaking public debut in June 2026. The proposed listing could allocate as much as 30% of shares to retail investors [3], a sharp departure from traditional IPOs, where institutional investors receive the bulk of allocations ahead of the public. This would be at least three times higher than the typical 5%–10% set aside for retail participation. Through the offering, the aerospace firm is reportedly aiming to lift its valuation to as much as $1.75 trillion [4]. The elevated retail allocation could be a meaningful positive for the deal as it signals strong anticipated broad-based demand, helps create a wider shareholder base from day one, and can support liquidity and trading depth once the stock lists. It may also improve perceptions of fairness versus the typical institution-heavy allocation model, potentially boosting public engagement and aftermarket participation. These factors can be helpful in sustaining momentum for a high-profile, mega-size IPO. Importantly, if retail demand shows up strongly at pricing and in early trading, it can reinforce the bookbuilding process and support SpaceX’s ability to clear the market at its targeted premium valuation by broadening the demand base beyond institutions. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Citigroup are said to have been appointed as lead banks [5] for the IPO.
The implied valuation is exceptional by any measure for SpaceX planning to go public in June, yet some investors view it as achievable based on the company’s proven execution advantages, most notably its reusable-rocket model, its high launch cadence of roughly 165 orbital flights in 2025 , and strong, long-standing government demand, with federal contract value exceeding $24 billion since 2008 . In addition, the scale and recurring nature of Starlink’s satellite-internet business, now supported by a constellation of around 10,000 satellites [8] , reinforces the steady cash-flow narrative typically favored by public markets. Finally, bullish expectations also reflect longer-term upside tied to the company’s AI-adjacent ambitions, including proposals for space-based data-center infrastructure, an area SpaceX has been pursuing through an FCC application to deploy up to one million orbital “data center” satellites [9].
A Long-Arc Trajectory to a Trillion-Dollar Valuation
Around July 2024, SpaceX was valued at approximately $210 billion following an internal tender offer that priced shares at about $112. [10] By December 2024, a share buyback pushed the share price to roughly $185, lifting the company’s valuation to around $350 billion [11] and making SpaceX the most valuable private U.S.-based company at the time. That record was surpassed in mid‑2025, when a prior secondary transaction and updated internal pricing valued the company at about $400 billion, with shares priced near $212 [12]. Later that December, SpaceX conducted a major secondary transaction priced at $421 per share that allowed employees and insiders to sell existing stock. Multiple reports indicated a target valuation of up to $800 billion [13], effectively doubling the earlier $400 billion figure and positioning SpaceX as the most valuable private company in the world (see Figure 1).
Earlier in February 2026, SpaceX announced an all-stock acquisition of xAI, merging the two companies at a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion,[14] with xAI valued at $250 billion and SpaceX at $1 trillion. Looking ahead, with a planned public listing expected in June 2026, SpaceX’s valuation is projected to rise to approximately $1.75 trillion (see Figure 1), which would place it among the world’s most valuable public companies, though still below U.S. peers such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Alphabet.
Description: The chart shows SpaceX’s rapid valuation growth from about $200 billion in mid-2024 to a projected $1.75 trillion IPO in 2026. Key jumps are driven by internal tenders, secondary share sales, and a major merger with xAI. Overall, it highlights SpaceX’s transformation from a highly valued private company to a potential trillion-plus public market leader. Source: PitchBook, SACRA, and Yahoo Finance
Maximum Thrust: SpaceX’s Record-Setting IPO Raise
Although SpaceX’s planned IPO may not necessarily command the highest valuation ever implied at a market debut, it could nonetheless raise the largest amount of capital in IPO history. SpaceX’s anticipated $75 billion capital raise would represent a historic outlier among global public offerings, eclipsing all prior IPOs by a substantial margin (see Figure 2). This figure comes far ahead of the current record holder, Saudi Aramco, which raised approximately $25.6 billion in 2019, as well as other landmark IPOs such as Alibaba, SoftBank, and Visa. The stark difference in bubble size underscores that SpaceX’s offering would not be a marginal extension of past IPO records, but a decisive break from historical norms, highlighting both extraordinary investor demand and the unprecedented scale of capital required to support SpaceX’s ambitions across launch services, satellite infrastructure, and long-term space-related development.
Description: This chart compares the world’s largest IPOs by capital raised, plotted by year. It highlights that SpaceX’s planned IPO in 2026* would raise approximately $75 billion, far exceeding all historical peers, including Saudi Aramco. While the SpaceX offering is not yet completed, it would represent the largest capital raise in IPO history if executed as expected. Source: Renaissance Capital
SpaceX IPO Payload Alone Outweighs Annual Issuances
The significance of the SpaceX IPO is best understood in the context of overall market issuance. The company is targeting a capital raise of approximately $75 billion, which on its own exceeds the roughly $39 billion raised across all 90 IPOs (as shown on the secondary Y-axis in Figure 3) combined in 2025, and is eclipsed only by aggregate IPO proceeds in 2021 which reached nearly $119 billion, the only year since the 1980s to surpass SpaceX’s projected 2026 raise (as shown on the primary Y-axis in Figure 3). Importantly, 2025 marked a cyclical recovery in IPO activity after three years of subdued issuance following 2021. Yet even against this rebound backdrop, SpaceX’s planned offering would nearly double total annual proceeds, underscoring the extent to which the transaction would represent a structural outlier rather than a continuation of recent market trends.
Description: This chart compares annual U.S. IPO proceeds and activity since 2000, highlighting how aggregate issuance has fluctuated across market cycles. SpaceX’s planned 2026* offering, projected at $75 billion, would on its own exceed most historical annual totals, surpassed only by the exceptional 2021 IPO boom. Source: University of Florida, Ritter IPO Data
Stage One: Gross Spreads and the First-Day Pop [15]
This IPO is expected to generate substantial revenue for Wall Street, primarily through underwriting fees and the allocation of shares to institutional investors before public trading begins. While large IPOs typically carry lower fee percentages than smaller offerings, they still translate into significant dollar earnings given their scale. For instance, Visa’s $17.9 billion IPO in 2008 carried a 2.8% underwriting spread; Facebook paid a 1.1% spread on its $16 billion IPO in 2012; General Motors’ $15.8 billion IPO in 2010 came with a 0.75% spread; and Uber paid 1.3% on its $8.1 billion IPO in 2019 [16].
Jay R. Ritter, Director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida, estimates that banks would earn a commission of roughly 2% on a SpaceX IPO due to its massive size, well below the historical median underwriting fee of about 7% for IPOs since the early 2000s (as shown on the primary Y-axis in Figure 4). Even at a 2% gross spread, a $50–$75 billion offering would generate $1–$1.5 billion in total fees. These fees would be shared among the banks arranging the IPO, which reportedly include Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Citigroup. Lead underwriters typically retain about 35% of total fees, meaning these four banks could collectively earn approximately $350–$525 million from the transaction.
These banks also stand to profit by allocating shares at discounted prices to preferred institutional investors ahead of public trading. IPO shares often surge on the first day due to strong investor demand. Historical trends since the early 2000s show that IPOs gain roughly 19% on their debut (as shown on the secondary Y-axis in Figure 4), implying that institutional clients could realize potential paper gains of approximately $9.5–$14.3 billion in a single day. A significant portion of these gains typically flows back to the underwriting banks; according to Ritter, banks capture up to 30% of the upside through various rebate mechanisms. Based on these estimates, the banks could collectively earn an additional $2.9–$4.3 billion from first-day trading gains alone
Launch Pricing: IPO Offer Price and First-Day Upside
With the completion of the all-stock merger with xAI at a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, the implied starting point for SpaceX’s IPO pricing shifts materially higher. Using the most recent private-market reference of $421 per share at roughly an $800 billion valuation from the December 2025 secondary sale, the merger valuation implies a proportional uplift in the per-share price to approximately $525–$530 per share, assuming a largely unchanged share count and no pre-IPO stock split. This range therefore represents a reasonable baseline IPO offer price, effectively resetting SpaceX’s public-market entry level to reflect both its expanded scale and the strategic addition of xAI. Importantly, the merger is structured as a share exchange, under which one xAI share converts into 0.1433 shares of SpaceX, with deal documents indicating xAI at $75.46 per share and SpaceX at $526.59 per share [17], a benchmark that further reinforces the post-merger IPO starting point.
From this starting level, upside potential depends on how aggressively the IPO is priced and the strength of investor demand. If the IPO clears above the merger benchmark, around $1.5–$1.75 trillion (as shown on the primary Y-axis in Figure 5), a level that several forecasts suggest is plausible, the implied offer price would rise into the $632–$737 per share range (as shown on the secondary Y-axis in Figure 5). Applying historical IPO dynamics, in which first-day trading gains have averaged around 19%, an IPO priced at the merger benchmark of $527 per share would imply an early trading level of approximately $627 per share. Similarly, if the IPO is priced in the $632–$737 band (as shown on the secondary Y-axis in Figure 5), early trading could plausibly lift the stock into the $752–$877 per share range shortly after listing.
While actual performance will hinge on float size, allocation discipline, and market conditions, the analysis highlights how the xAI merger meaningfully elevates both the IPO starting line and the near-term valuation ceiling for SpaceX.
Description: This chart translates SpaceX IPO valuation scenarios ($1.25 trillion, $1.5 trillion, $1.75 trillion) into an implied IPO offer price per share, then applies an assumed about 19% first-day pop to estimate the implied first-day trading price (e.g., $526.59 to $626.64 at the $1.25 trillion benchmark). Overall, it highlights that higher valuation targets lift both the IPO starting price and the expected day-one trading level, with the high-case scenario reaching roughly $737 to $877 per share. Source: EBC Financial Group and University of Florida, Ritter IPO Data
Conclusion: Will the Landing Stick?
Finally, the SpaceX deal is shaping up as a referendum not simply on one company, but on how much valuation risk public markets are still prepared to absorb in exchange for scale, scarcity, and ambition. As discussed, SpaceX’s valuation climbed from roughly $210 billion in mid‑2024 to about $800 billion in late‑2025. The xAI transaction then marked a step‑change, establishing a $1.25 trillion benchmark and pointing toward a potential $1.75 trillion market debut. On that basis, the offer price could plausibly move from the merger-implied $527 per share to roughly $632–$737 per share, while a first-day gain in line with long-run IPO averages of about 19% would point to early trading in the region of $752–$877 per share. At an expected $75 billion raise, the transaction would not merely set a new record for proceeds but also stand apart from almost every annual US IPO market in recent memory.
While some investors may view SpaceX as a compelling IPO opportunity because it offers rare exposure to a scarce, category-defining space infrastructure platform, potentially with unusually broad access via a reported ~30% retail allocation. The bull case is anchored in clear execution proof points, including rocket reusability, ~165 orbital launches in 2025, and durable demand signals such as $24 billion plus in US federal contracts since 2008. Starlink further strengthens the narrative by adding a more recurring-revenue profile, supported by a ~10,000-satellite constellation, alongside longer-dated upside optionality tied to AI and “data-in-space” ambitions.
At the same time, more cautious investors may hesitate given the transaction’s premium framing ($1.75 trillion valuation) and unusually large $75 billion raise, which can leave less room for execution missteps. That caution could be amplified by an “AI bubble” lens. Although SpaceX is fundamentally an aerospace business, its xAI all-stock merger may cause the IPO to be underwritten and traded more like a tech/AI listing, raising fears that sentiment-driven multiples and not underlying aerospace economics could inflate the valuation and increase downside risk if AI enthusiasm cools. Combined with capital intensity, execution/regulatory uncertainty, and inevitable post-IPO price discovery, some investors may prefer to wait for clearer public-market validation of fundamentals and more stable secondary trading dynamics.
That is why the outcome will matter far beyond Starbase. If SpaceX prices strongly, delivers the expected first-day pop, and then holds those gains, bankers and investors will read that as evidence that the market can still clear extremely large, capital-intensive technology offerings at premium valuations. That would strengthen the hand of Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are among the marquee technology listings being prepared for later in 2026, and would give sponsors greater confidence around valuation, deal size, and aftermarket support. If, however, SpaceX stumbles, whether through weaker pricing, a muted debut or poor secondary trading, the lesson will be equally clear: private-market exuberance does not automatically translate into public-market demand, and the companies coming after it, including Anthropic and OpenAI, may face a more exacting test of revenue quality, capital intensity, and credibility at scale.
[1] SpaceX Targets More Than $2 Trillion Valuation in IPO, Bloomberg News Reports (Reuters)
[2] “Musk’s SpaceX Files to Go Public in One of the Biggest IPOs Ever” (WSJ)
[3] “SpaceX Could Open 30% of Its IPO to Retail Investors. Here’s How You Can Buy It” (Yahoo Finance)
[4] "SpaceX Could Seek IPO Valuation of Over $1.75 trillion, Bloomberg says” (Reuters)
[5] "SpaceX Plans April Investor Briefings as IPO Questions Swirl” (Bloomberg)
[6] SpaceX Shatters its Rocket Launch Record Yet Again — 165 Orbital Flights in 2025 (Space.com)
[7] SpaceX’s $1.75 Trillion IPO Filing: Inside the $75 Billion Listing That Could Shatter Every Record on Wall Street (Tech Insider)
[8] SpaceX Now Has More Than 10,000 Starlink Satellites in Orbit (Scientific American)
[9] "Four Things We’d Need to Put Data Centers in Space” (MIT Technology Review)
[10] “SpaceX Reportedly Valued at Around $210 Billion in Planned Secondary Market Share Sale” (Forbes)
[11] “SpaceX Valuation Surges to $350 Billion as Company Buys Back Stock” (CNBC)
[12] "Musk's SpaceX Retakes Private Company Crown—for Now” (Bloomberg)
[13] “Elon Musk’s SpaceX Valued at $800 Billion, as It Prepares to Go Public” (The New York Times)
[14] “Musk's xAI, SpaceX Combo Is The Biggest Merger of All Time, Valued at $1.25 Trillion” (CNBC)
[15] First-day pop refers to the percentage increase in a company’s share price on its first day of trading after an IPO compared to the offering price. It reflects strong investor demand and often benefits institutional investors who receive IPO shares before public trading begins.
[16] Mean and Median Gross Spreads and Number of Managing Underwriters, 1980-2025 (University of Florida, Ritter IPO Data)
[17] Musk's xAI, SpaceX Combo Is The Biggest Merger of All Time, Valued at $1.25 Trillion (CNBC)
