The 2025 global economic outlook presents significant challenges shaped by trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and commodity market dynamics. President Trump’s announced tariffs (25% on Mexico and Canada, 10% on China) could potentially reduce global growth by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. The automotive and electronics sectors are expected to be most impacted by these tariffs, with automotive representing 47% of tariff discussions and electronics 39%. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Iran-Israel tensions, are already affecting global shipping routes and energy supplies. The shipping industry faces dual challenges from geopolitical tensions affecting key routes and new environmental regulations, especially the EU’s Emissions Trading System. In the commodities sector, oil markets are predicted to maintain a surplus, while natural gas prices are expected to decline in Europe but rise in the US.

This document covers the key risks and offers a few recommendations to help businesses navigate these challenges in the evolving global economic landscape.